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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
GAINS AND GAPS: CHANGING INEQUALITY IN U.S. COLLEGE ENTRY AND
COMPLETION
Martha J. Bailey
Susan M. Dynarski
Working Paper 17633
http://www.nber.org/papers/w17633
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
December 2011
GAINS AND GAPS: CHANGING INEQUALITY IN U.S. COLLEGE ENTRY AND
COMPLETION
Martha J. Bailey
Susan M. Dynarski
Working Paper 17633
http://www.nber.org/papers/w17633
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
December 2011
A version of this paper is published under the title, “Inequality in Postsecondary Education,” in Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality and the Uncertain Life Chances of Low-Income Children, edited by Greg J. Duncan and Richard J. Murnane. We are grateful for research assistance from Emily Beam, Sayeh Nikpay, Nathaniel Schwartz, and Francie Streich. Rebecca Blank, Greg Duncan, Mike McPherson, Richard Murnane, and participants in the conferences on Social Inequality and Educational Disadvantage provided valuable comments. The Russell Sage Foundation generously provided funding for this research. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official
NBER publications. © 2011 by Martha J. Bailey and Susan M. Dynarski. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source
NBER publications. © 2011 by Martha J. Bailey and Susan M. Dynarski. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source
Gains and Gaps: Changing Inequality in U.S. College Entry and Completion
Martha J. Bailey and Susan M. Dynarski
NBER Working Paper No. 17633
December 2011
JEL No. I21,I23,I24,J1,J24
ABSTRACT
We describe changes over time in inequality in postsecondary education using nearly seventy years
of data from the U.S. Census and the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth. We
find growing gaps between children from high- and low-income families in college entry, persistence,
and graduation. Rates of college completion increased by only four percentage points for low-income
cohorts born around 1980 relative to cohorts born in the early 1960s, but by 18 percentage points for
corresponding cohorts who grew up in high-income families. Among men, inequality in educational
attainment has increased slightly since the early 1980s. But among women, inequality in educational
attainment has risen sharply, driven by increases in the education of the daughters of high-income parents. Sex differences in educational attainment, which were small or nonexistent thirty years ago,
are now substantial, with women outpacing men in every demographic group. The female advantage
in educational attainment is largest in the top quartile of the income distribution. These sex differences present a formidable challenge to standard explanations for rising inequality in educational attainment. Martha J. Bailey University of Michigan Department of Economics 611 Tappan Street 207 Lorch Hall Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220 and NBER baileymj@umich.edu Susan M. Dynarski University of Michigan Weill Hall 735 South State Street Ann Arbor, MI 48109-3091 and NBER dynarski@umich.edu
Martha J. Bailey and Susan M. Dynarski
NBER Working Paper No. 17633
December 2011
JEL No. I21,I23,I24,J1,J24
ABSTRACT
We describe changes over time in inequality in postsecondary education using nearly seventy years
of data from the U.S. Census and the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth. We
find growing gaps between children from high- and low-income families in college entry, persistence,
and graduation. Rates of college completion increased by only four percentage points for low-income
cohorts born around 1980 relative to cohorts born in the early 1960s, but by 18 percentage points for
corresponding cohorts who grew up in high-income families. Among men, inequality in educational
attainment has increased slightly since the early 1980s. But among women, inequality in educational
attainment has risen sharply, driven by increases in the education of the daughters of high-income parents. Sex differences in educational attainment, which were small or nonexistent thirty years ago,
are now substantial, with women outpacing men in every demographic group. The female advantage
in educational attainment is largest in the top quartile of the income distribution. These sex differences present a formidable challenge to standard explanations for rising inequality in educational attainment. Martha J. Bailey University of Michigan Department of Economics 611 Tappan Street 207 Lorch Hall Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220 and NBER baileymj@umich.edu Susan M. Dynarski University of Michigan Weill Hall 735 South State Street Ann Arbor, MI 48109-3091 and NBER dynarski@umich.edu